Saturday, October 1, 2011

Moneyball #1 Friday But Dolphin Tale May Take Weekend; Courageous #3, 50/50 #4, Dream House #6, Whats Your Number? #7

FRIDAY 11:45 PM, 2ND UPDATE: Still on vacation. Late numbers coming inare changing the order yet again. (Oh no, not another confused weekend like the last one!)Box office analysis coming very soon.For now, here’s the North American Top 10 as my sources see it: 1. Moneyball (Sony) Week 2 [2,993 Theaters] Friday $3.8M (-43%), Estimated Weekend $12M, Estimated Cume$38M 2. Dolphin Tale (Alcon, Warner Bros) Week 2 [3,515 Theaters] Friday $3.4M (-33%), Estimated Weekend $13M, Estimated Cume $37M 3. Courageous (Sony) NEW [1,161 Theaters] Friday $3.4M, Estimated Weekend $9M 4. 50/50 (Summit) NEW [2,458 Theaters] Friday $3.3M, Estimated Weekend $9.5M 5. Lion King 3D (Disney) Week 3 [2,340 Theaters] Friday $3.2M, Estimated Weekend$12M, Estimated Cume $80.6M 6.Dream House (Universal) NEW [2,661 Theaters] Friday $2.7M, Estimated Weekend $7.5M 7.What’s Your Number? (Fox) NEW [3,002 Theaters] Friday$2M, Estimated Weekend $5.5M 8.Abduction (Lionsgate) Week 2 [3,118 Theaters] Friday $1.7M (-54%), Estimated Weekend$5.3M, Estimated Cume $18.8M 9.Contagion (Warner Bros) Week4 [2,744 Theaters] Friday $1.4M, Estimated Weekend$4.7M, Estimated Cume $64.4M 10.Killer Elite (Open Road) Week 2 [2,986 Theaters] Friday $1.4M (-56%), Estimated Weekend$4.4M, Estimated Cume $17M FRIDAY 1 PM: These are very early numbers based on matinees. Therefore the order could change dramatically by tonight. My sources say that according to noon averages, this is simply a snapshot of where the North American box office is right now: 1. The #1 film at this time is Sony’s Courageous which is running 55% ahead of where Fireproof was at this time of day. (Fireproof went on to gross $6.8m for its first weekend. Estimates are for Courageous to earn $5M Friday and a weekend in the mid-teens. Not surprising that it’s trending in front right now because faith-based movies engender a lot of pre-sales as church groups bus to the theaters. 2. Right now it’s too close to call for 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place as Alcon Entertainment/Warner Bros’ Dolphin Tale, Sony Pictures’ Moneyball, and Disney’s Lion King 3 are all ranking close together. 5. Summit’s 50/50 is estimated at $3M for Friday with a weekend of $9M. Note that this film is R-rated so matinees are not a good barometer of its strength at the box office. 6. Based on noon averages, Universal’s Dream House is trending toward a Friday estimated gross of $4M with a weekend of $11M if the box office picks up significantly tonight as predicted. 7. Fox’s What’s Your Number is a tough call this early. It could go to $3M today and $9M this weekend.

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